2024-05-16

Introduction

  • Grew up surrounded by nature and farming in Patagonia
  • Field Work Ecologist -> Work with stakeholders -> Landscape modeling -> Data Science
  • Focus on transdisciplinarity

Two scales of resilience

Local resilience

Rewildilng Mols Bjerge National Park (Local)

  • Return from a disturbance

  • rewildling (NBS) vs enclousure

Rewildilng Mols Bjerge National Park (cont)

Resilience in Networks

  • Measures of network stability
  • Trophic and mutualistic
  • With rewiring potential hypothesis
  • Potential colaboration (Dr. Liesbeth Bakker)

Landscape and temporal scale

Landscape and temporal scale

  • Systematic conservation planning
  • What areas are irreplaceable
  • How do we manage for climate change
  • Optimization of resilient landscapes
  • Network flow (more on this later)

Learning from the past

  • Who, when, why, and where became extinct (Villavicencio, N., Corcoran, D., & Marquet, P. 2019)

Future resilience (SPARC)

  • Spatial Planning for Area Conservation in Response to Climate Change (SPARC)
  • SPARC is coordinated by Conservation International and involves scientists and policy experts from over 20 institutions across the tropics
  • Neotropical Coordinator/Project Researcher

Future resilience

  • We use all of this to take decisions about the future (Hannah, L., Roehrdanz, P.R., Marquet, P.A., Enquist, B.J., Midgley, G., Foden, W., Lovett, J.C., Corlett, R.T., Corcoran, D., Butchart, S.H. and Boyle, B., 2020)

Network flow

  • Incorporating species dispersal (Species on the move)
  • Considering Food security
  • Quadratic Network flow (Currently suppervising PhD student in South Africa)
  • Multiple scenarios
  • Possible collaboration with Dr. Anouschka Hof
  • Example report

Geographic representation

Future directions

How to plan for futute landscapes

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \text{Human dimension}\end{align*}\)

  • Biodiversity
    • Community composition and rarity
    • Phylogenetic Diversity
    • Functional diversity
  • Resilience
    • Contiguity (Area)
    • Ecosystem Functioning and Global Change Vulnerability
    • Network stability (Trophic and/or mutualistic)
    • Stochastic components
  • Human dimension
    • Food and resource security (Eg. Renewable energy, water)
    • Minimize conflict

Example Landuse (Global contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} \cdot \text{bonus}\end{align*}\)

  • Trade-off

Individual cell values (Local contribution)

\(\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity}_c + \text{Resilience}_c\cdot \text{bonus}\end{align*}\)

Adding human dimension

\[\begin{align*} \text{Maximize} & = \text{Biodiversity} + \text{Resilience} + \text{Human dimension}\end{align*}\]

  • First iteration:
    • Economic yield and number of owners
  • Second iteration:
    • Characterization of actors, who is in the areas of interest (Farmers, Home owners, private companies, municipalities)
    • What are their interests
  • Third iteration:
    • Interview them, what are their concerns (quantitative surveys, Q method, Dr. Arjen Buijs)
    • add them to the optimization

External colaborations

External colaborations

  • Spatial Optimization (Wendy Foden, South Africa; Patrick Roherdanz, USA; Signe Normand, Denmark; Pablo Marquet, Chile)
  • Numerical optimization (Roberto Cominetti, Chile)
  • Stochastic models in migration and optimization (Cristobal Quiñinao, Chile)
  • Biodiversity datasets (Brian Enquist, USA)
  • Trophic and Mutualistic networks (Isidora Ávila-Thieme, Chile)
  • Human Dimension (Giorgia Graells, Chile; Pil Pedersen, Denmark)
  • Paleoecology (Natalia Villavicencio, Chile)

Questions